Friday, February 03, 2012

The Lancet Report Measures Global Malaria Rates

Malaria Mortality Burden Larger Than Previously Estimated

Malaria Map
Methods: Researchers systematically collected all available data for malaria mortality for the period 1980—2010, correcting for misclassification bias. Researchers developed a range of predictive models, including ensemble models, to estimate malaria mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. Researchers used key predictors of malaria mortality such as Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence, first-line antimalarial drug resistance, and vector control.

Findings: Global malaria deaths increased from 995,000 in 1980 to a peak of 1,817,000 in 2004, decreasing to 1,238 000 in 2010. In Africa, malaria deaths increased from 493,000 in 1980 to 1,613 000 in 2004, decreasing by about 30% to 1,133,000 in 2010. Outside of Africa, malaria deaths have steadily decreased from 502,000 in 1980 to 104,000 in 2010. The report estimated more deaths in individuals aged 5 years or older than has been estimated in previous studies: 435,000 deaths in Africa and 89 000 deaths outside of Africa in 2010.

Interpretation: The findings show that the malaria mortality burden is larger than previously estimated, especially in adults. There has been a rapid decrease in malaria mortality in Africa because of the scaling up of control activities supported by international donors. Donor support, however, needs to be increased if malaria elimination and eradication and broader health and development goals are to be met.

Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AAEA supports the use of DDT and other pesticides to help in eliminating malaria, particularly in Africa.

(The Lancet, See also Wash Post, 2/3/2012)

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